Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Turn out the lights...

It was a great party, but it's over.

Goodbye, Sawx.

After a thrilling sprint to Game 7 against the Rays, the string ran out, the tank was empty, the immovable object met the irresistible force, etc., etc., and the Sox bowed out of the 2008 ALCS.

As much as everything seemed lined up in their favor, with the historic Game 5 comeback, the metronome-like win in Game 6 (you know, steady, constant, with all the right people delivering), you knew that Game 7 would be a different animal. This wasn't an exhausted Yankees team under enormous pressure like in '04 or a shaky Indians team exposed by Sox batters in '07. These are the Rays, indefatigable, youthful, brash and convinced that they are on a path to a higher destiny.

In a lot of ways, this game reminded me of the ALCS Game 7 of '03, with the inexorable march towards a conclusion that everyone suspected but refused to acknowledge. The Sox had just too many loose ends on their thread this postseason: an exhausted ace (Lester), an injured stopper (Beckett), an inconsistent offense, a mortal superhero (Papi), and too many easy outs (Varitek, Kotsay, Lowrie, Cora, Ellsbury, etc.). They just ran out of camouflage and were exposed by the Rays.

So now it's the off-season... and big question time (for Theo Epstein, Larry Luchinno, John Henry, and the rest of the baseball ops folks):
- What is Varitek's future with the team? Do they re-sign him for multiple years, tender him a one-year deal with options, or cut him loose? My money's on the first, but at a serious discount. Anything more than $6-7M for a .240 hitter with limited power and lots of K's is too much, heart and catching prowess notwithstanding. We'll see what Scotty Boras has to say about that.
- The rotation -- do they need another arm? Lester has established himself as a stud, Beckett (when healthy), is a dominant ace, and Dice-K can be brilliant, but they need more. After watching the Rays trot out 4 quality starters, the Sox need another arm for the rotation. Is it Masterson? Bowden? Bucholz? Or a free agent (Jake Peavy, Ben Sheets, CC Sabathia, etc.)? This will be interesting, as the answer could very well determine the division leader before a game is played.
- Papi Protection - Youkilis established himself as a bona fide stud this season at the plate, but do the Sox need more than that to protect Ortiz and make him the Big Papi of '03-'07? Because clearly, the '08 Big Papi is not gonna help this team. I know his wrist was hurt and a big question mark, but the Rays (and Angels) went after him in a way I haven't seen, well, ever, and had no qualms about throwing him strikes. With names like Mark Texiera out there, don't be surprised if you start to hear rumors of the Sox interest.
- Will the kids keep coming? Ellsbury, Lowrie, Masterson, Delcarmen, Bowden, Bucholz... the list of players from the Sox system who made an impact this season is downright amazing, and that doesn't include Papelbon, Lester, Pedroia and Youkilis, all of whom are in serious consideration for postseason awards. Will the 2006-2008 class of kids continue to get better? Stop and think about this one: Every one of the names above (except Bowden) has experienced growing pains this season, from Ellsbury's slumps to Delcarmen's loss of control to Bucholz's meltdown... can they come back and be more consistent? If they do, the sky is the limit. Who would have imagined so much talent would be homegrown, especially after Lou Gorman stripped the farm system bare in the late '80s?

It should be an interesting off-season. We may be saying goodbye to Mike Timlin, Paul Byrd, Mark Kotsay, Sean Casey, and some others (Coco Crisp?), and saying hello to some interesting new ones...

Bring on the Hot Stove!

Go Sawx!

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Lost weekend...

If you are a Sawx or Pats fan, you know what I am about to post about...

Ugh.

All of the worst fears of these two teams were realized in a 72-hour span (give or take) and all of the flaws were exposed. The result? A collective 0-3 record for the Sawx and Pats and a dose of some serious reality.

Walk with me, people.

After watching Dice-K spin a gem (a flawed gem, yes, but still a gem) on Friday night, the Rays wasted little time in jumping all over Josh Beckett on Saturday night. When the smoke cleared after four innings, it was 5-3 Rays and Josh Beckett looked like a shadow of the playoff ace with the "guts of a burglar"... and things would only get worse, as the Sox squandered a brief 6-5 advantage and wound up losing in extra innings (sometime around 1 a.m. or so) when the Human Surrender Flag, aka Mike Timlin, gave up the winning run.

Cut to Sunday night: The Pats, coming off a solid win over the 49ers that showed off their chameleon-like quality to win with many different styles, were facing a desperate San Diego Chargers team who needed a win to have any shot at keeping pace with the Broncos in the AFC West. All signs pointed to a spirited contest that would feature two teams that genuinely dislike one another (here's one example)... except one of those teams forgot to show up.

Sorry to be harsh, but when you allow a bomb on the first play (and two more) and blow a gimme touchdown opportunity in the first 20 minutes, you ain't winning. The Pats have issues... the secondary is thin, the offensive line is struggling, and Matt Cassel looks like a guy who hasn't had meaningful snaps since his senior year in high school (oh wait... he HASN'T).

Now the Pats find themselves facing a Broncos team licking its own wounds with the perfect combination of offensive weapons to give the Pats fits: potent passing with long ball options and a running game capable of playing keep away. You think teams aren't learning how to mess with Cassel? Pay attention this week to how many times the Broncos blitz up the middle and you'll see how to beat the Pats.

And it's on to Monday... the less said, the better. Of all the pitchers on the Sox this playoffs, Jon Lester seemed like the one who would be this year's Superman. In the 2004 run, it was Schilling, bloody sock and all. In '07, Beckett. This year, after watching him own the Angels (14 IP, 0 ER, dominance and command), you had to figure that yesterday afternoon's Game 3 at Fenway was a sure Sox win. Umm... not so much.

Tony Massaroti on Boston.com nailed it -- the Sox, for whatever reason, have disregarded the scouting reports on B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria and have paid the price. Watching Upton and Longoria unload on two Lester fastballs was just unbelievable. If I had those swings, I would own the BWCS softball "B" division...

So now it's a must-win Game 4. Make no mistake: THEY HAVE TO WIN THE NEXT TWO GAMES. There's now way they can afford to lose any of the Fenway games, because they can't win two in Tampa. It's on Tim Wakefield to own the Rays (surprisingly, he has, using their aggressiveness against them) and the offense to score early and put the pressure on Tampa. If they don't, it's gonna be a long night.

It's on Wakefield, Ortiz, Varitek, Ellsbury, and the bottom of the batting order to either get out in front or wake up their bats. Otherwise, it's Rays in 6.

And then a long winter...

Go Sawx!

Thursday, October 9, 2008

ALCS -- Trip to the Trop to Tackle Tampa

Roll Sawx!

It's on to the ALCS after dispatching the Angels for the 3rd time in the last five seasons. Despite the whining of John Lackey that the Angels were the better team, they weren't; they played tight, made errors, couldn't get key hits when they needed them, and when the game - the series - was on the line in Game 4, called for a boneheaded suicide squeeze when a ground ball or fly ball would have plated the go-ahead run.

Look, don't get me wrong - Mike Scoscia is a great manager and they are a good team. But when you get to play 1/3 of your games against the weak AL West (Rangers, A's and Mariners) and you win 100 games, you're not as a good as you might think. Peter Gammons does a better job of articulating it here, but the result bore out what most people suspected: Regular season dominance is often a matter of perception rather than fact, as very few of the "best" teams end up winning the World Series.

So now the Sawx travel to Tampa for the best-of-7 ALCS, with all sorts of storylines brewing: David (Tampa) vs. Goliath (Boston), the kids vs. the vets, the worst-to-first Rays, the bad blood between the two teams, etc. Sufficed to say, it's a series that most people expect to be hard-fought and to go the distance.

One storyline that seems to be a little overlooked is how this season has demonstrated that, without a salary cap in baseball, it is possible to be a small-market team like Tampa and win a division. Lost in all the "Dollar Wars" between NY, Boston, LA, etc. is the tried-and-true baseball edict - if you draft good players, develop them right, mix in some savvy vets and get a little luck (not to mention a steady hand on the till in Joe Maddon), you can win and win big.

And, unlike most Sawx fans, I don't "hate" the Rays. How can you hate a team that plays hard, plays smart, and leaves it all out on the field? Sure, they brawled with Boston in June. Hard slides and high & tight fastballs will get teams ornery, and mid-season is usually around the time you see a few dust-ups. Yes, Johnny Gomes is a cheap-shot artist... frankly, the guy's a punk, but he plays hard and never quits. Much like guys 1-25 on the Sox roster. So how can you hate a team that looks and plays exactly like your team?

I, for one, am excited about this series. I think the two teams are fascinating to watch because they mirror each other in many ways - great starting pitching, great defense, speed on the bases - and yet have so many opposite traits. The Sox are a patient-hitting team that grinds starting pitchers, while Tampa is the definition of the "see ball, hit ball" team. Tampa has a bullpen that's got everything you could want - power arms, situational guys, savvy veterans - while the Sox bullpen remains a work in progress. And, lastly, the Sox can put up a lot of runs in a hurry, while Tampa can struggle for runs against good pitching teams.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see them go the full seven games, each game a 4-3 or 3-1 battle. Each team has big questions... for the Sox: Is Josh Beckett healthy? Can Dice-K go six innings? Will the Sox bullpen fall apart? For the Rays: Can they stay patient against the Sox starters, each of whom pounds the strike zone? Can they score enough runs? Who will close out the game? Will Pena, Crawford and the other walking wounded be able to make it all seven?

Fascinating... starting tomorrow night, we might get our first glimpse of the next five years of the AL East. It used to be Sox/Yankees... now it could be Sox/Rays.

Either way, bring it.

Go Sawx!