Wikked Hahd: Living in Baw-stahn

Soxycontin

2009-08-25T08:31:00.000-07:00

Brought to you by Paul "Fitzy" Fitzgerald... Check him out on NESN's "Pocket Money"!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEEwGZixc6Y

Lost weekend?

2009-08-24T10:22:00.000-07:00

So the Red Sox dropped 2 of 3 to the Yankees and, for all intents and purposes, said goodbye to any chance of taking the AL East division title this season.

And with 39 games to go in the regular season, it's all about the following numbers -- 1, 6, 20, 22.

1 - The Wild Card standings currently have the Sawx sporting a one-game lead over the Rangers. The Sawx currently have a 2-7 record against the Rangers, who just dropped 2 of 3 against the Rays, the other serious Wild card contender. Which brings us to...

6 - That's the number of games the Sawx have remaining against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Sawx have posted a 4-8 mark against the Rays this season, looking old and slow against the youthful Rays. The six games are split evenly - 3 in Boston, 3 in Tampa - and that bears watching, as the Sawx have gone 3-3 vs. the Rays at home, but 1-5 at the Trop. At the very least, they need to hold serve against the Rays at Fenway and try and steal two games at Tampa. FYI - the Rays are 3 games back of the Sawx in the Wild Card standings.

20 - At 70-53, the Sawx have 39 games left, of which 20 (slightly more than half for you math majors out there) are against teams with winning records. Eleven of those games are at Fenway, where the Sawx are 39-20 (vs. 31-33 on the road).

22 - Of those 39 remaining games, 22 are at home. The Sawx need to take advantage of this advantage and win these home games, especially since they finish the season with 7 games at home vs. the under-achieving Blue Jays and Indians, both of whom should be well into "playing for next year" mode by the end of September.

Before I sign off, a quick note on last night's 8-4 homer-happy loss to the Yankees last night. After both Derek Jeter and Hideki Matsui hit Josh Beckett's first-pitch fastball home runs to start the first and second innings, respectively, I turned to Mrs. Wikked Hahd and said "I guess the Yanks plan is look first-pitch fastball for tonight"...

Come to find out that indeed was the case, as almost all of the Yankees homers on Sunday came on first-pitch fastballs and two-strike curveballs - Buster Olney on ESPN.com pointed that out here (scroll down to the "Sunday's Games" segment). So why could I see that but Beckett, Jason Varitek, Terry Francona and John Farrell couldn't? Is it because of Beckett's legendary stubborness? Or is he due for some pounding after being so brilliant for so long? He insists he's healthy and has no physical issues, so it could just be a blip.

Either way, it's never a good sign when I can see what's going on from my couch better than the Sawx from the field.

Favre = Chump.

2009-08-21T07:48:00.000-07:00

I know this space is reserved for Baw-stahn spoohts postings, but I just had to say...

Brett Favre is a chump.

Why do we care? It's a freaking joke. The guy is killing his reputation and legacy in some sad Quixotic quest to remain relevant. And like Roger Clemens - the most recent "can't let go" athlete - he's ruining any goodwill from his career because he craves the spotlight too much to go off into the sunset (holy mixed metaphors!).

In the process, he's making fools of all football writers - from Peter King on down - whom he told just weeks ago that he was "done" and was "really" retired. Imagine you're Peter king: Favre is your real football BFF with whom you've shared innumerable dinners, locker room chats and text messages. He tells you "I'm done" and you report it to the world, only to have him reverse field a week later and come back. So now King, who is to the NFL what Peter Gammons is to baseball, looks like a fool. You think his reputation didn't take a hit and he's not upset? Check out the first half of this story for the former, and this one for the latter.

Don't forget, he's also pissing off his die-hard fans in Green Bay, folks who stood in sub-zero weather with foam cheeseheads on their head cheering for their icon. So now his fans look like fools, the football media cognoscenti look like fools, and - worst of all - he's burning bridges left and right.

Sigh... when November rolls around and he's hurt again and throwing wounded ducks up for grabs - ruining the Vikings chances for the playoffs and beyond - we'll all have to go through another stupid news cycle of "Favre done?" again. Only this time, hopefully no one will want to listen.

Hopefully...

Drew-ing a blank

2009-08-19T08:07:00.000-07:00

Quick quiz, "Jeopardy"-style: Five years, $70 million, highest per-year salary on the team in 2009.

Answer: Who is J.D. Drew?

That's right - the highest-paid player on the Boston Red Sox is not Josh Beckett, not Jonathan Papelbon, not Kevin Youkilis, not Jason Bay, and not Dustin Pedroia. Heck, not even David Ortiz.
And for that $14 million per year investment, the Sawx have gotten the following: 43 HRs, 173 RBI, 225 R, and a .269 Avg. in 2-3/4 seasons... meanwhile, Drew has done nothing to shed his injury-prone reputation, playing in 80 percent of his team's games (349 of a possible 442, counting last night). It's not for nothing that Bill Conlin, a columnist for the Philadelphia Daily News (a city Drew famously spurned because they wouldn't pay him the Scott Boras-demanded $10 million as a draft pick), once called Drew "Superwuss" for his myriad of injuries.

By contrast, each of the positional players named (Youkilis, Bay & Pedroia) have played in 90% of those games -- collectively -- while making $15.8 million total. And each has more runs, more RBI, more HR and a higher batting average in that span.

What's most maddening, tho, is looking at the players currently outperforming Drew for other teams for a fraction of the cost, knowing that the Sawx are on the hook for Drew's salary for another 2 & 1/4 seasons, which hurts when you consider that Youkilis and Pedroia both have bigger salaries that kick in next season and Bay is a free agent at the end of this season, and you have to believe that Drew's salary will be a sticking point in those negotiations.

In his defense, you can't quite call Drew's salary "dead money" because chances are, on one of those days when he DOES play, he COULD do something to help the team win at least one game. Unfortunately, no one -- not Terry Francona, not his teammates, not Theo "J.D. has naked pictures of me" Epstein, and especially not Red Sox Nation -- knows when those days or that game will be. It's just as likely to be in a meaningless May game as it is in Game 6 of the 2007 ALCS to send the Sawx to a decisive Game 7 and eventual World Series title.

So when you watch Drew strike out on bad pitches out of the strike zone, bounce out to the second basemen to kill a rally, or pull up on a line drive to right field, it is enough to make you nuts. Last night's bad strikeout in the eighth inning (on an inside fastball around his eyebrows) and obvious pull-up on a line drive to him that scored two runs and prolonged a painful inning only serve as Exhibits 100 & 101 of how frustrating a player he is.

By all accounts, Drew is a nice guy -- respectful, deferential, a good husband and father (most players aren't either, let alone one or the other) -- but appears to be an indifferent teammate and not a "gamer" (on a team full of them) willing to "grind it out" and play hurt for the team.

And therein lies the rub -- he's a talented player who has proven that he can be a game-changing force, but has never delivered on that talent and seems to not give a crap either way. Epstein was captivated by the promise of that talent, and is now hostage to it.

And so are we... but just think: Only 2 & 1/4 seasons and $30 million or so left to go.

Stick a fork in them?

2009-08-17T06:57:00.000-07:00

It's August 17 - six weeks to go in the season, and the Red Sox are now trailing in both the AL East and Wild Card standings.

7-1/2 games back of the Yankees, 1/2 game back of the Rangers. 12-17 in their last 29 games.

This is not a blip - it's a trend, and it's looking ugly.

Beyond wins & losses, though, is this troubling statistical split -- 118 and 20. The first number is the amount of stolen bases allowed by the Sawx pitching/catching batteries this season, the second is the number of runners caught stealing. That's a 98 stolen-base split... yikes. In fact, the Sawx are last in both stolen bases allowed and runners thrown out.

As the Tampa Bay Rays have demonstrated in nearly every game against Boston this season -- and as the Texas Rangers painfully reinforced this weekend (8 steals in 3 games) -- today's game is a speed/defense/pitching game, and not the bash people's heads in game of past years. Sure, everyone knows that, and the Sawx are Exhibit A writ large of what can happen when you fall behind the athlete curve.

As a team, the Sawx have stolen 92 bases and succeed in their steals 75 percent of the time -- fourth in the AL in both categories. Those rankings, though, are deceptive: Jacoby Ellbury has 53 of the Sawx 92 steals, and is the only player on the team with 20+ steals and a plus-75% success rate (generally considered the cut-off for an effective base-stealer). By contrast, the Rays have 3 players with 20+ steals, each exceeding 75% in their success rates (Carl Crawford 54 steals, 84% success rate; B.J Upton 35 steals, 76% success rate, Jason Bartlett 21 steals, 88 % success rate) and a team mark of 80% success rate (158 steals, 39 caught), which trails only Texas (84%) in the base-stealing efficiency ranks.

Here's another troubling fact -- the Sawx are now the sixth-best fielding team in the league by fielding percentage (.984 - total assists & putouts/total chances), but that's deceiving when you consider that the Sawx have the fewest amount of total chances in the league. Some of that is due to the pitching staff, which has struck out the second-most batters (900) in the league - after all, you can't catch the ball if the batter strikes out - but the Sawx have also allowed better than a hit per inning (1.02 H/IP). Amongst contending teams - division leaders and wild-card contenders - only the AL West-leading Angels have allowed more.

Number, numbers, numbers... what does this all REALLY mean? It means that the Sawx, who for the last three season either had the highest or tied for the highest fielding percentage in the AL, are slipping behind their competition. Hence the trade for Alex Gonzalez to solve their shortstop problem, the shuffling of Mike Lowell between 3B and DH, the move of Youkilis to 3B, the trade for Casey Kotchman, bringing up Josh Reddick, etc. - all moves designed to make the Sawx better in on defense.

When you consider that the 3-5 spots in the pitching rotation currently sport a collective ERA of almost 6.00 and a WHIP (walks + hits/IP) of almost 2.00, it's critical for this team to be able to get outs in the field and control the base paths. And the Sawx are just not getting it done in those departments - and no amount of production from the offense will fix that. You can't beat the opposition if you can't get them out or stop them from running on your pitchers/catchers.

The truth is, this team's flaws were evident early in the season, but the line-up was producing (Big Papi's season-long funk notwithstanding) so they weren't as obvious. But now they are... and I'm not sure how they can be fixed as we move into the Aug/Sept stretch drive.

And that, more than the lack of production from Papi, J.D. Drew, Jason Varitek, etc., may have the Sawx on the outside looking in when the playoffs roll around.

Waay Late Posting - Sawx pitching staff

2009-04-21T11:22:00.000-07:00

OK - so the whole "come back tomorrow and read my thoughts on the Sawx pitching staff" thingie didn't really work out so well. Here it is, three weeks into the season, and I am finally posting part two of my Sawx season preview.

Damn you, Life and your incessant busy-ness! Damn you, uber-successful Boston pro sports teams! Damn you, springtime and your siren song of warm weather and late sunsets!

And, just for fun, you damn dirty apes!

Now that I have that out of my system, here's my preview of the Sawx pitching staff, striving for objectivity but influenced by the mixed results of the first three weeks of the 2009 season.

Starting Rotation
Josh Beckett - Any conversation about the Sawx pitching staff's ability to make a postseason run begins with Beckett, the unquestioned "ace" of the staff and the veritable bell cow of the Sawx pitching staff. If he's right, he can carry the team to the promised land; if he's not, he might still be able to keep the team chugging along. And he only seems to be getting better, especially now that he's figured out how to harness his 90+ fastball, killer curve and has added a legit changeup. Three starts into 2009, we've seen one great start (Opening Day vs. the Rays - 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 10 K) and two middling starts (start #2 vs. Angels - 6 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, one near-brawl with Bobby Abreu; start #3 vs. Orioles - 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 BB, 5 K). If we can get more of the former, and less of the latter, this team will go a long way.

Jon Lester - His breakthrough 2008 season saw Lester put it all together. Long known for his fastball/curve combo, Lester starting mixing in a slider and a changeup, with fantastic results - 16-6, 3.21 ERA, 152 Ks, 210 IP - wearing down only in his final start of the playoffs against the Rays, where he dropped consecutive starts. Heading into this season, Lester seemed primed to emerge as the 1A to Beckett's 1, the only concern being the possible effects of a 147-inning bump in his workload. After a couple of rough starts against Tampa Bay (5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER) and Oakland (6 IP, 10 H, 6 ER), he bounced back with a vintage 2008 Lester outing against the Orioles, going 7 innings, whiffing 9 batters and allowing just 4 hits. It would appear he's turned the corner; let's see what happens when he faces the Yankees, Rays, et al.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - Oh boy. The worst fears of Red Sox Nation about Dice-K came true, quite quickly, this season. After pitching in - and being named the MVP of - the WBC, Dice-K started the season with a vintage100-pitch, five-inning outing against the Rays (3 HRs allowed) in which he took the loss. Unfortunately, that would be his best outing of the season, as he would go just one inning in his next appearance, throwing 43 pitches, giving up 5 hits and 2 walks, and five runs. Following the game, he went on the DL with a tired shoulder & arm. Time will tell if his WBC outings - 98 pitches in one four-inning stint - have taken a toll. The Sawx can survive without Dice-K for a while, but the deep lineups in their division will catch up with them if they don't have that extra starter, whether it's Dice-K, John Smoltz, or whomever else.

Tim Wakefield - The guy is amazing... he's 42 years old and still has that knuckleball fluttering. His versatility and longevity make him a valuable asset for this team, and if they can handle the standard two-week tired arm period in mid-season, Wakefield will continue to give this team 27-30 starts, 180+ innings, and 11-14 wins - all key compenents to helping this team compete and go deep into the postseason. He has two World Series rings and the eternal respect of his peers as a gamer and a stalwart member of the Sawx rotation.

Brad Penny - To reference myself "[S]ay what you want about [Penny's] injury history, but remember two things: He is just two seasons removed from a dominant season, and he is now in a rotation with his old Marlins buddy Josh Beckett. Remember when the Marlins had a rotation of Beckett, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny and A.J. Burnett and won the 2003 World Series? Good to have 1/2 of that quartet with the Sox." Well, Penny's had two starts in 2009 - one decent, one decidely awful - and has looked like, well, a fifth starter. One thing to remember: In Penny's career at Fenway, including his April 17 home start against the Orioles (3 IP, 6 H, 8 R, 5 BB), he has pitched a total of 8 innings and allowed a whopping 17 runs. That's a 19.13 ERA...

Bullpen
Some quick hits on these guys:
- Ramon Ramirez - been as good as advertised. Great fastball, decent slider/change, gets outs as a strikeout/fly ball pitcher. He's allowed 3 hits in 26 ABs over 8 IP. A great pick-up thus far for the 7th or 8th inning bridge to Papelbon.
- Manny Delcarmen - appears to have comfortably settled in to his middle relief role, overpowering hitters with fastballs and getting key outs in his 8 innings thus far. He may never be the power set-up guy he was drafted to be, but he will give this team a lot of value by filling the middle innings to get to the set-up guys.
- Javier Lopez - after a great 2008, Lopez has been a bit bumpy this year, posting a 2.57 WHIP in seven appearances this season. He gets guys out; he just might give you a heart attack in doing so, throwing an average of more than 20 pitches per inning to do it.
- Takashi Saito - appears to be a real steal. Thought to be done because of elbow troubles, Saito has been a valuable addition, proving the Sawx gambled right in adding him to be a set-up guy and a secondary closer. Although he has an ERA over 6, Saito is averaging more than a strikeout per inning and has a save and a hold in his four appearances.
- Hideki Okajima - despite a bumpy start to 2009, Okajima has settled into a nice groove, with 6 Ks in his last appearances and two holds, setting up Papelbon nicely. If he can continue to work his fastball/curve/changeup mix effectively, he should remain one of the Sawx primary set-up guys and key cogs in this bullpen.
- Justin Masterson - an emerging stud in this pitching staff. His versatility - he can be a reliever, pick up spot starts in Dice-K's absence, and even close if needed - is unmatched on this team (maybe only Wakefield is as versatile), and his ability to get swings & misses on his sinker and plus fastball, mixing in a slider and occasional changeup, make him a real asset to this team. His future is bright indeed.
- Jonathan Papelbon - he's basically become a fastball-only guy, mixing in his self-proclaimed "slutter" (slider/cutter). He can still bust out the splitter ocassionally, but with his plus fastball and control, he usually doesn't need it (his April 11 outing against the Angels notwithstanding). he still gets a ton of swing & misses, and can make batters look silly waving at his stuff. if he can avoid the tired shoulder that's plagued him at the end of the last few seasons, Paps will stay one of the most valuable Sawx - and pitchers - on the team.

2009 Sawx Preview - "Are you ready for a war?!?!"

2009-03-31T11:47:00.000-07:00

So it's finally upon us... the 2009 Red Sox season is less than a week away and it's time to begin the battle for the AL East.

With the Yanks having spent gazillions on a new pitching staff and Mark Teixeira, and the Rays maturing (and adding a potent bat in Pat Burrell), it's pretty clear that this season will be one of the most challenging - and most exciting - in recent memory for the Sawx.

The Sawx, who rightly believe that their team was not that far from championship caliber last season, spent their offseason tweaking the roster around the edges, adding some high-risk/high-reward types to the rotation (Brad Penny & John Smoltz), the bullpen (Takashi Saito) and the positional roster (Rocco Baldelli) while making sure they locked their younger core players - Dustin Pedroia, KevinYoukilis, Jon Lester - into long-term, team-friendly contracts.

Was that strategy prudent? Will the new guys, balanced with some other fresh faces from within (George Kottaras, Jed Lowrie) and without (Ramon Ramirez), be enough to match the dazzling free agents and emerging super-duper-stars of the Yanks & Rays? Well... that's why we play the games!

So, with Tony Massarotti offering his preview on the Sawx today, I thought I'd spend a little time giving my two cents on the Sawx position players and line-up. Tomorrow I'll do the rotation and bullpen... And around the diamond we go!

POSITION PLAYERS
Catcher - Jason Varitek, George Kottaras
You get the feeling that this position is a work in progress, because there's no way that the Sawx make it through the entire season with this tandem. Varitek has done it all for the Sawx - who can forget his dust-up with A-Rod, big homer in last year's ALCS vs. the Rays, or the way he calmly guided young studs Jon Lester and Clay Bucholz through their no-hitters - but the window isn't just closing on him; it's just about shut. A .220 batting average last year and declining OPS (career-high .872 in 2004 to last year's .672) don't bode well for the Captain's future with the Sawx. Kottaras, a rookie this season and will be the designated Wakefield catcher to start, has just five major league ABs and seems to have gotten the job because he's cheaper and younger than Josh Bard, who was supposed to have been Wake's caddy this season. Don't be surprised if the Sawx make a move for a better catching prospect (Miguel Montero, Taylor Teagrden, Jarrod Saltalamachia) come mid-season.

First Base - Kevin Youkilis, Chris Carter/Mark Kotsay (injured)
What was once a bit of black hole for the Sawx (Kevin Millar, where have you gone? Toronto, that's where) has become a position of considerable strength thanks to the sterling glovework of Kevin Youkilis and the emrgence of Chris Carter. Youkilis, who has become - arguably - one of the premier firstbasemen in the A.L., emerged last season as a legit MVP candidate with his .312/29/115 campaign at the plate and a Gold Glove in the field. A slight drop-off is probably expected this season as pitcher get smart to how to get him out (down & in or get him to chase), but .300/20-25/95-105 would seem reachable, especially if he has good protection from Drew/Bay/Lowell in the line-up. As for Carter, he has been raking (.359, 6 HRs) in spring training, but may have a short-lived stay on the big club when Kotsay comes off the DL. Either way, this is a definite position of strength.

Second Base - Dustin Pedroia, Nick Green
What other superlatives can you bestow on Pedroia that haven't already been given to him? Video game coverboy... Reigning MVP... WBC leader for Team USA... and in the meantime, serious ball-buster and "iron worker" in the offseason. Teh guy once thought of as too small and with a swing too big is considered to be the best at his position in all of baseball. It'll be tough to top last year's scintillating MVP campaign (.327/17/83/20 SBs, .869 OPS), but it seems likely that Pedroia might be putting up those numbers here for a while. And, having already stated his desire to play every day, it's unlikely Nick Green will ever see significant playing time, which is too bad, because Green has been terrific this spring (.345, 2 HRs, great defense), but his great versatility will be a plus for the Sawx in the early part of the season.

Shortstop - Jed Lowrie, Green/Julio Lugo (injured)
Ah, yes... the NEW black hole of the Sawx. Ever since Nomah's departure in July 2004, the Sox shortstop carousel has seen the likes of Orlando Cabrera, Alex Gonzalez, Edgar Renteria, Tony Graffanino, Alex Cora, Royce Clayton, Lugo, and now Lowrie trotting out to the "6." Now, with Lugo on the DL and Lowrie having proven himself in the crucible of a pennant race, it looks like the Sox will break camp with the steady Lowrie at short, and Green backing him up until Lugo comes off the DL in mid-April. Chances are, Lugo will then get the bulk of the ABs at short because of his salary, but Lowrie may be back in the lineup full-time by mid-season if Lugo reverts to form. Stay tuned...

Third Base - Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie (Youkilis)
One of the bigger question marks of spring training has been Lowell's status coming back from offseason hip surgery. The prognosis is good, but Lowell is 35 and plays a position where bending, twisting and diving occur on a regular basis, which means that his hip - repaired or not - will be under stress all season. If he stays healthy, he's a line-drive machine who has seen his doubles stroke pay off well in Fenway (he peppers the Green Monstah) and is good for .280/17-20/85-95 easy. If he's hurt, we'll see Youk slide over to 3B with Lowrie/Green taking the occasional spot start. Either way, this is an ongoing area of concern for the Sawx - I for one hope Lowell makes it thru, because when right he is a prime asset for this team in the field, at the plate and in the clubhouse.

Left Field - Jason Bay, Rocco Baldelli
The late July trade that sent Manny packing and brough Jason Bay to town turned out to be the best thing that could have happened for the Sawx. Adding a pro like Bay to the lineup was a great addition, made even more important when Mike Lowell went down in the playoffs and Bay's right-handed power helped keep the linup balanced. Bay, who finished with a .286/31/101 line last season (.293/9/43 with the Sawx), should see similar production with his fly-ball swing and the protection he'll have in the Sawx lineup. Plus he's proven himself to be a great leftfielder in Fenway (no easy task) and has fit right in to the clubhouse. Expect .285-.290, 30 HRs, 100 RBI and a .900+ OPS. As for Baldelli, he remains a bit of an enigma. He hasn't been the same since being diagnosed with chanelothapy, and his production this spring (.194, 2 HRs, .694 OPS) hasn't looked so good. Still, he can provide pop off the bench, is a more than capable fielder with plus skills, and could prove valuable as a spot-starter. Any more than a couple of starts a week would be dicey, tho.

Center Field - Jacoby Ellsbury, Baldelli
With the trade of Coco Crisp for Ramon Ramirez in the winter, the Sawx have basically ceded the center field job to Ellsbury, and he seems poised and ready to take it. Despite wearing down at points in the season (and being benched, ironically, for Crisp in the playoffs), The Kid managed a .280/9/47 stat line for 2008, with 98 runs and 50 SBs; however, a .336 OBP as a lead-off hitter isn't gonna cut it. Ellsbury, who can fall into fly-ball ruts and gets pull-happy at the plate, combined with his well-publicized trouble with the inside fastball, needs to up that number to help make the Sawx offense go. In the field, his stellar defense and instincts mean no drop-off from Crisp, and his speed on the basepaths has really changed the Sawx offense. He is a key player for this team, seemingly poised for a breakout season if he rediscovers his 2007 late-season magic.

Right Field - J.D. Drew, Baldelli
On a lesser team without the support (cover) the Sawx line-up offers, Drew's two season in Boston thus far would be called a disaster. He followed a .270/11/64/.796 OPS 2007 with a .280/19/64/.927 line in 2008, largely inflated by a .337/12/27/1.310 OPS (!) month of June where he carried the Sawx while Big Papi dealt with his wrist. Both seasons featured flashes of brilliance combined with extended visits to the DL. Drew, who once seemed like the ideal power/OBP/fielding candidate the Sawx covet, can still be the player Theo Epstein believes he is. But extended production for a whole seaosn seems unlikely; as ESPN.com puts it, be "highly skeptical [that] Drew will ever see the high side of 500 at-bats ever again" which doesn't bode well for the Sawx. If Drew misses significant time, it could mean more ABs for Baldelli (a risk, considering his health) or a mid-season acquisition - Matt Holliday? - that could see one of the Sawx prize prospects leave in a trade. A question mark that will be answered, one way or the other.

Designated Hitter - David Ortiz, any number of other candidates
I guess theoretically, any one could DH on any given day for the Sawx, but let's be honest: If Big Papi isn't in there for 150+ games and 500+ ABs, this team is in trouble. Simply put, he is maybe the most indispensable part of the lineup. They can make do for a little while if he goes down, but Pedroia loses his protection, Youkilis loses his, and the whole line-up has to be adjusted. Papi, who missed time last season with a wrist injury, is no longer considered a lock for .300/35-40/120. If healthy, it's not unreasonable to suggest .290-.300/30/100 out of Papi, with significant numbers for walks and runs scored. And a monster chip on his shoulder, given how many people seem to be doubting him. I, for one, believe Papi can be productive for this season and return to his familair dominant position in the Sawx lineup.

Projected Opening Day Lineup
CF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
DH Ortiz
1B Youkilis
RF Drew
LF Bay
3B Lowell
C Varitek
SS Lowrie

TOMORROW - Pitchers!

Sawx in Spring Update - random thoughts

2009-03-26T08:36:00.000-07:00

With Opening Day for the Red Sox less than two weeks away, a quick check on the storylines from late February:

- The New Guys - Hard to read where the new Sawx (Smoltz, Penny, Baldelli, Ramirez, Saito, et al.) stand as spring training winds down. On the one hand, utlility candidate Nick Green has been a stud, thanks to extra ABs from Pedroia's WBC absence, batting .340, slugging .520 and making it easy to see him as the extra infielder to start the season. On the other hand, Brad Penny only just started throwing in games (3 IP, 3 Ks) and Smoltz has started bullpen sessions. Ramon Ramirez has been inconsistent (8 1/3 IP, 8 Ks, 9 hits, 3 HRs) while Saito has been solid (8 IP, 8 Ks). Baldelli's been up and down (.179 Avg., 7 Ks in 28 ABs) and Brad Wilkerson, expected to be a dark-horse fourth outfielder candidate, has been abysmal with 18 whiffs in 42 ABs. Stay tuned, I guess...

- The Kids - The big story of spring training has been the revelation that is Daniel Bard, who has been dominant, with 12 Ks in 9 1/3 IP and just 5 hits allowed. As important as Bard's development has been the stabilization of Clay Bucholz, who seems have regained the stuff - and swagger - he had in his brilliant '07 late-season tenure with the Sawx. Factor in Jon Lester's consistency and Justin Masterson's continued growth and maturation, and the Sawx have serious depth in the rotation and bullpen with both the big club and the PawSox.

- Big Papi, Lowell and Drew - Three acknowledged question marks that have, for the most part, not really been answered this spring. In limited ABs, Mike Lowell (.318, 3 HRs, 1.045 OPS) has looked like he is making his way back, while David Ortiz has been solid if unspectacular (.280, 2 HRs, .947 OPS) and J.D. Drew has been, well, J.D. Drew - he's left camp with a back issue and then missed some time with a hand problem (courtesy of a fastball off said hand last Friday) - and hasn't really lit it up in limited action (.174, 1 HR, .684 OPS). I guess, in large part, the jury is still out on this VIT - Very Important Triptych - for the Sawx. Stay tuned...

- Tickets Still Available?!?! - According to RedSox.com, there are still tickets available for almost every series in April (excluding the Yanks, of course), which is pretty much unheard of. This is a blog post on its own (foreshadowing? you betcha!), but it would certainly seem like the twin spectres of the economic repression (not quite a recession, not quite a depression, with a slice of cantaloupe at the end) and general fan ennui might be to blame. Too much success in the last 5 years after decades of futility seem to have spoiled Sawx fans. More to come later.

- No A-Rod? No Manny? No problem... oh wait - Yes, it's true: A-Rod is out until May with a hip problem (douche) and Manny is back in L.A., so it would seem like the Sawx have nothing to worry about from two of their more recent nemeses. Well, except that pesky little WBC, which almost torpedoed the Sawx season with injuries to Pedroia and Youkilis. Luckily, it seems like both Pedey and Youk are on the mend and will be fine by Opening Day... but it only throws into sharp relief the folly of holding the WBC in March when most of these guys have yet to take a swing in anger, let alone even see a live pitch. Well, at least Dice-K looked good.

Well, that's all for now. I for one am glad to see the mundane inanity of Spring Training drawing to close, because I'm done with the NCAA tournament (my bracket was toast after the first weekend) and ready for the Sawx to start the season.

Go Sawx!

A "Curt" career comes to a close -- does the Globe know?

2009-03-24T10:27:00.000-07:00

And so Curt Schilling goes off quietly into that good night...

I won't spend any time rehashing Curt's baseball legacy or his Sawx tenure, other than to point you towards Jayson Stark's great piece on Schilling from ESPN.com where he relays a conversation with Johnny Damon about Schilling. When you get that kind of respect from your peers, all the other plaudits seem superfluous.

Rather, Schilling's retirement throws into sharp relief the dearth of real, true sports reporting at the Boston Globe. The Globe has fallen into its own trap of reporting. By cultivating the curmudgeons of baseball writing (Shaughnessy, Ryan, Cafardo, etc.) and severing ties with the loudmouths at WEEI, they have removed themselves as a relevant outlet to "break" sports news.

How else do you explain Schilling opting to use his own blog -- and WEEI by extension -- to announce he is retiring? It's a well-known fact that, Tony Massaroti excluded, Schilling and many of the Sawx have no time for the Globe, eloquently detailed by Schilling in comments aired on WEEI's "Dennis & Callahan" -- which singled out Shaughnessy in particular, basically summed up as "I don't have anything bad to say about him [Shaughnessy] but he hates his job, hates baseball, is lazy and nobody likes him... but he's a talented writer."

Hard to believe the Globe is now second banana (or third, if you count WEEI as a legit sports news outlet) in Boston, especially considering it was once home to writers like Peter Gammons, Will McDonough, Peter May and Jackie MacMullan, among others -- writers and columnists in my lifetime who redefined what it meant to cover their sports and created classic prose along the way (don't forget John Updike's classic "Hub fans bid Kid Adieu" which -- despite being published in The New Yorker -- remains one of the most classic piece of Boston sports writing ever published).

Now - with the exception of Massarotti -- we get the artist formerly known as Bob Ryan and a bunch of "writers" like Chad Finn and others who seem to spend more time writing boring game stories and trolling other sites and sources and less time writing original stories that capture the moment and make readers think. And there's a special place for Shaughnessy, who seems to be elevating uselessness and irrelevancy to an art form.

Undaunted by the fact that he is widely reviled by readers and contemporaries alike, Shaughnessy still found a way to take a shot at Schilling as he left the building by comparing him to George McGovern and Dick van Dyke -- ooh snap! -- which serves only to demonstrate how woefully out of touch Mr. Curly-Haired Boyfriend himself is. As many bloggers (including yours truly) have demonstrated time and time again, arcane pop culture references and snarkiness usually end up being witty for an audience of one, and only serve to push your readers away.

Sigh...

It's sad that I don't ever read the Globe for sports coverage anymore -- ESPN.com has better local coverage through its blogs and beat writers (not to mention The Sports Guy) of Boston sports than the Globe does. I used to read the Globe sports section front to back every day, and I loved Gammons, McDonough, May, MacMullan, and others -- thought-provoking writers whose columns were must-read and must-discuss amongst my family and friends. Nowadays, not so much.

So farewell, Curt... Thanks for 2004, thanks for being a part of 2007, and thanks for being a ringleader for 5 of the most exciting years I've ever experienced as a Sawx fan. I'm glad you won't be completely gone, but I'm sorry you didn't get the farewell you should have gotten from the Globe.

And P.S. - you are a Hall of Famer, no question. Discussion for another time.

Paps shoots at Manny - Hit or Miss?

2009-03-12T08:32:00.000-07:00

Well, after hearing all sorts of vague and innuendo-laden quotes from Sawx personnel since last July, someone finally came out and said what most people suspected... Manny Ramirez is a "cancer." And not a moment too soon, apparently, for a city starved for some kind of Sawx spice for an otherwise bland and quiet spring training this year.

Here's Jonathan Papelbon on Manny from the April issue of Esquire (as reported by the Boston Globe):

"It just takes one guy to bring an entire team down, and that's exactly what was happening," Papelbon is quoted as saying in the interview with Esquire's Chris Jones. "Once we saw that, we weren't afraid to get rid of him. It's like cancer. That what he was. Cancer. He had to go. . . . [That] was the only scenario that was going to work."

It probably shouldn't come as a surprise that it was Papelbon who went on record with this type of comment. With Curt Schilling now moving on to his next career - radio commentator and baseball's unofficial quasi-conscience - Papelbon would seem to be the most likely candidate to step up as the new go-to quote source for the Sawx.

What does come as a bit of a surprise is that there hasn't been a swift response from the Sawx brass to rebuke or refute the comments. The Sawx have been so careful not to come out and say what everyone long suspected (and what Paps confirmed in his inimitable style): Manny was a distraction to his teammates not for his play on the field, but his conduct off the field and in the locker room.

The Sawx have gone to great lengths to distance themselves from the "25 players, 25 cabs" era and other tawdry reputations that dogged this team in the '80s & '90s. For the most part, they have been successful in creating a culture where players are professional, team-oriented and all pointed in one direction with minimal distractions. The No. 1 word you hear thrown around when people discuss the Sawx in the national media is "professional" - and the team's stars (Pedroia, Ortiz, Youkilis, Beckett, etc.) all embody that. They show up, work hard, play hard and generally keep low profiles.

Except, apparently for Papelbon. Personally, I like Papelpon - he clearly has the right mindset for his job as closer and loves competing. He speaks his mind, isn't afraid to be himself, and generally entertains both on the the field and off.

His comments, though, might be more than his bosses on Yawkey Way can stomach and could bring the "wrong" kind of attention to a team that has generally been flying way below the radar this spring.

Nevertheless, the Boston sports media FINALLY has a story to run with, and we finally have something interesting to talk about this spring besides Lugo vs. Lowrie.

I say keep talking, Paps - we can use some more spice this Spring. Not sure if Mssrs. Epstein, Henry and Lucchino feel the same.

Basketball Break - Celts road getting bumpy

2009-03-11T12:34:00.000-07:00

Marion: You're not the man I knew ten years ago.
Indy: It's not the years, honey, it's the mileage.
- Raiders of the Lost Ark

It's March 11 and the NBA season is chugging into the regular season homestretch. With 18 games left on the schedule, the Celtics stand just 1.5 games in back of LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers for home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference, with a game left versus the Cavs to seal the head-to-head advantage (currently 2-1 in favor of the Celts).

By all accounts, it would seem the Celtics are in prime position to re-take the top spot in the conference and assure themselves home court for the 10-week slog through the playoffs.

But there is danger lurking for the Green. Danger in the form of sprained knees, twisted ankles, surgically repaired thumbs and concussions. Injuries have the left the Celtics in a vulnerable position, especially at this crucial time when one loss can send a team tumbling out of a prime playoff slot.

Losing two-fifths of your starting five is an obvious problem - Kevin Garnett remains sidelined by a sprained knee and Rajon Rondo is no out with a sprained ankle - but it's the other casualties that are troubling. The Celts have made do without Tony Allen - out since the winter with a bad thumb - but losing both Glen Davis and Brian Scalabrine is especially troubling because now the Celts have no cushion for their big men. It's all hands on deck for the whole roster.

What does this mean? More minutes for Kendrick Perkins, Leon Powe and Mikki Moore, for one. For Moore, it's not a big deal - he is probably thrilled to have the chance to go from 12 minutes a night to 20+. But for Perkins and Powe, it gets a bit more dicey; after all, both of them played big minutes through last year's title run, all 110 games' worth. All that wear and tear on the tires means those guys are probably feeling a little worn out by now.

But it gets a little more troubling when you consider the following: No Garnett and Rondo means more of the scoring and play making load falls to 30-something stars Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. Allen, who might be the most well-conditioned player I have ever seen, probably will be all right, since his game is less about contact and more about running off screens and jump shots.

Pierce, on the other hand, might be in some danger. As a scorer, he does anything and everything he can to get his shots and create offense, whether it's his patented dribble-drive jumper or crashing to the rim. The problem with both of those scenarios is, of course, that both invite serious contact from the opposition. Whereas Allen can avoid that by using screens and picks, Pierce's game is all about contact - always has been, always will - and that is why he is so effective.

Pierce is already playing major minutes and bearing the brunt of the scoring load, and has had an assortment of minor to mid-major injuries over the last two seasons. All it takes is one hip check or hard foul from a goon playing for the Knicks, Nets or Wizards or some other going nowhere team to put Pierce out of action for a spell, dooming the Celts pursuit of the home court advantage.

And that's really the biggest worry of all - last season's run, glorious as it was, showed that home court advantage can be a saving grace for a team. Extended to seven games in Rounds 1 & 2 by the Hawks and Cavs, respectively, the Celtics would have been doomed if they hadn't had the benefit of four home games per series (where they held serve, 4-0, in both rounds) instead of the three they would have had as a lower seed.

So hold your breath, Celts fans, and pray the ranks of the walking wounded don't continue their expansion on Causeway Street. Otherwise, the quest for Banner 18 may become quixotic in the face of so much attrition.

"The Bachelor," or How to help a D-Bag to become a BIGGER D-Bag

2009-03-04T11:48:00.000-08:00

WARNING: The following is a diatribe against "reality" TV. You've been warned...

I think that when Judgement Day comes, there will be a special level of H-E-double-hockey-sticks for the producers of 95 percent of reality TV. And right next to them will be most of the contestants.

This week brought us the spectacle of a major league D-BAG on "The Bachelor" who may have done more damage to the institution of marriage than any divorce statistic may ever do. First, he pimps his kid out on the show to find a new wife/mother, then - after making "the toughest decision of his life" - he dumps one woman on live TV and picks the runner-up.

Remember, of course, that the whole "Bachelor" process is - by its very nature - a Persian Bazaar approach to dating. You take one man (or woman) and line them up with two dozen potential matches who proceed to pull out all their tricks (up to and including MAJOR canoodling) in order to "win" the heart of the Bachelor (or Ette). It culminates in a proposal finale where the star of the show chooses between two possible mates, complete with an engagement ring.

Blugh...

I guess they've had some real doozies in the past - there was the rich doctor guy, the former NFL quarterback, the rich heir... each of whom has picked their perfect match, none of whom are still together.

In this particular installment, we had a former male contestant (from "The Bachelorette) with a son who was looking for a new wife and mom to his son. Jason, aka "The Dumb-Ass D-Bag," was a divorced father who thought that rather than try and meet someone the "old-fashioned way" that might be a good future wife and mom to his son, he would go on national TV and use "The Bachelor" instead.

So, to recap - divorcee (with child) goes on national TV to find future spouse/mother to said child in a completely artificial "courting process" that sees him simultaneously dating and "wooing" a bunch of different women (who apparently have no problem with being seen as a fame-grabbing and desperate) only to whittle it down to two choices, one of whom he proposes to ON NATIONAL TV and then breaks up with just a few weeks later when he figures out that "reality" (aka, soft-focus TV and contrived "dates") is way different from REALITY (aka, having a mature relationship based on trust and mutual respect that requires MATURITY).

And we are surprised by this "shocker" outcome? Hmmm...

Quick aside: When my wife and I were dating, I am pretty certain that had I said to her "You know, you're really super-cool and all, but I think I want to simultaneously date 20 other women just to make sure that you are 'The One'... is that OK?" that the answer would have been "Umm... NO!" followed by one (or all) of the following: Dumping my ass, beating me with a stick, and possibly kicking me in the junk. Yet this is OK for all of the folks involved in "The Bachelor"...
The divorce rate in this country currently hovers around 50 percent. Do the math: One in every two marriages results in a divorce. Why? Well, speaking as a newly married person, marriage is HARD. Having an adult relationship with someone is HARD. Why? Because it requires you to not be selfish. It requires you to think of another person. It requires you to be open to change. To listen. To not walk away when something goes wrong or you disagree.

But marriage is also fantastic. You get to say to someone "I love you" and hear them say it back and not wonder if there's an ulterior motive. You get to learn everything about someone, and you become fascinated with who they are what makes them who they are. You take your heart, give it to someone, and feel the exhilaration when they give you theirs in return. I have learned more about what it truly means to love someone in the 9 & 1/2 months I have been married than I did in the 35 years that I was single. And I have learned that loving that person takes work, but the rewards will give you happiness that knows no bounds.

All this I learned, though, by committing myself to ONE PERSON, and not two people of dubious intentions on a "reality" show.

According to the Nielsen overnight ratings, 15.5 million people watched this farce on Monday night. Watched a complete D-Bag break the heart of two women, and then make up with the first dumpee because he couldn't stop thinking about her WHILE HE WAS WITH THE "WINNER"!

Oh yeah - did I mention he has a kid? That he's a "loving father"? Bulls**t. A loving father wouldn't try and find a suitable step mom for his son on a show like "The Bachelor." Again, the divorce rate is at 50 percent - we should spending more time showing what a REAL relationship is like and how a REAL marriage is supposed to happen and thrive. But instead we get this crap...
It's not enough to lay the blame for all of this at the feet of the D-Bag. The producers of "The Bachelor" are responsible as well. They should look themselves in the mirror and ask themselves if they like profiting from this whole reprehensible enterprise, showing how venal, immature and desperate people can be for "love."

I don't know if any of the above makes any sense... probably doesn't. All I know that every time I see some article, blog or TV show talking about how "juicy" and "exciting" this show is, I throw up a little in my mouth. And then I remind myself how lucky I am that I am not a fame-grabbing whore who needs a "reality" TV show to confirm what we already knew - I'm a raging D-Bag.

And then I kiss my wife.

Tom Brady marries! Women throw themselves from rooftops!

2009-02-27T11:10:00.000-08:00

Time out from ruminating on the Sawx to talk about the other big Baw-stahn sports story... Tom Brady's nuptials.

Yes, it's true... Boston's favorite heart-throb QB has traded up from his previous main squeeze and married "supah-model" Gisele Bundchen. Weep, women of Boston!

Personally, I could do with WAAAAY less breathless reporting on the love life of "Tom Terrific"... we get it. He's a super-duper celebrity that belongs to "us" and not to New York or LA or any other city. He's a "stand-up" guy who works hard, performs on the field and is a 3-time Super Bowl champ and a legend in the making.

Before we elect him Pope, though, let's pause for a second... he's a great athelete, no question. But he's also a "baby-daddy" (like Michael Scott) not unlike many MANY pro atheletes, but maybe we fail to pay attention to that because we love him so much. And the way his ex was treated in the press following the disclosure of the pregnancy in these parts was shameful.

So cheer for him on the field... but don't whitewash his personal life.

And for God's sake stop writing about his love life...

Hope springs eternal... even though it's still winter

2009-02-25T10:55:00.000-08:00

Hello and welcome back to the blog. It's been a while, I know... been a little distracted with what's happening in the economy and such. Apparently we - i.e., America - are having a little problem with loans and credit and such. Probably nothing to worry about, right?

But I digress...

Spring Training is here , and all Red Sox fans thoughts turn to... umm, how frickin' cold it is in Boston right now!

Seriously, though, the Sox are down in Fort Myers getting ready to kick off the 2009 campaign, and I couldn't be happier. Not because it means lots of stories about who will be the shortstop (Lugo... duh) and who will pick up the "Manny Slack" (it will be the Bay/Lowell/Drew combo), but because it means warmer weather is on the way and with it, the promise of another good season of Sox baseball.

Moreso than even the 2007 season - when the arrival of J.D. Drew & Dice-K and Jacoby Ellsbury's planned ascendance had Sox fans expecting big things - there is a quiet confidence oozing from the pores of everyone associated with the Sox that good things will come this season. The continued growth of the Sox young guns - Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon and (most of all) Jon Lester - and the expected "bounce-back" campaigns from Josh Beckett and Big Papi have everyone thinking this team will be dominant.

For me, though, the real excitement and reason(s) for great expectations lie with the new faces on the roster who will most assuredly be difference-makers down the stretch. Faces like:

- John Smoltz - personally, this was the "holy s**t" moment of the off-season for me. Smoltz's stats and awards are known, but it's the so-called intangibles that have me giddy. He is - arguably - one of the two most successful big-game pitcher of his era (the other being Curt "WEEI Speed Dialer" Schilling) and a bulldog competitor to boot. The fact that he signed with the Sox for short money and is expected to be at full-strength by May/June (just in time to start the "shut-it-down" process for the rotation) has me positively giddy. I can't wait to see him pitch at Fenway.

- Brad Penny - say what you want about his injury history, but remember two things: He is just two seasons removed from a dominant season, and he is now in a rotation with his old Marlins buddy Josh Beckett. Remember when the Marlins had a rotation of Beckett, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny and A.J. Burnett and won the 2003 World Series? Good to have 1/2 of that quartet with the Sox.

- Takashi Saito - if he stays healthy, this guy is an unbelievable reliever who has struck out 245 guys and walked just 52 (almost 5-1 ratio) in his 3-year major league career. He is yet another reason to LOVE the Sox bullpen.

- Rocco Baldelli - gotta love this story... superstar in the making loses 3-4 years in his prime to a debilitating illness and some freak injuries, keeps working and seeing the doctors, and now finds himself playing for his hometown team (he's a Rhode Island native) in a perfect role for him: 4th OF, part-time DH, and major force off the bench. Plus he's a great clubhouse guy, from all accounts.

- Ramon Ramirez - yet another shrewd pick-up for the bullpen. Power arm, doesn't allow homers (just 2 in 70+ innings in '08) and average 1 K per inning. He'll get plenty of chances to rack up K's as Pap's set-up guy.

Remember that this is a team that came within a game of the World Series last season despite being decimated by injuries. Considering the talent they have all over the diamond defensively and the depth of the pitching rotation and bullpen, it's hard not to like this team's chances at getting back to the playoffs and even the ALCS.

Go Sawx!

Turn out the lights...

2008-10-21T06:24:00.000-07:00

It was a great party, but it's over.

Goodbye, Sawx.

After a thrilling sprint to Game 7 against the Rays, the string ran out, the tank was empty, the immovable object met the irresistible force, etc., etc., and the Sox bowed out of the 2008 ALCS.

As much as everything seemed lined up in their favor, with the historic Game 5 comeback, the metronome-like win in Game 6 (you know, steady, constant, with all the right people delivering), you knew that Game 7 would be a different animal. This wasn't an exhausted Yankees team under enormous pressure like in '04 or a shaky Indians team exposed by Sox batters in '07. These are the Rays, indefatigable, youthful, brash and convinced that they are on a path to a higher destiny.

In a lot of ways, this game reminded me of the ALCS Game 7 of '03, with the inexorable march towards a conclusion that everyone suspected but refused to acknowledge. The Sox had just too many loose ends on their thread this postseason: an exhausted ace (Lester), an injured stopper (Beckett), an inconsistent offense, a mortal superhero (Papi), and too many easy outs (Varitek, Kotsay, Lowrie, Cora, Ellsbury, etc.). They just ran out of camouflage and were exposed by the Rays.

So now it's the off-season... and big question time (for Theo Epstein, Larry Luchinno, John Henry, and the rest of the baseball ops folks):
- What is Varitek's future with the team? Do they re-sign him for multiple years, tender him a one-year deal with options, or cut him loose? My money's on the first, but at a serious discount. Anything more than $6-7M for a .240 hitter with limited power and lots of K's is too much, heart and catching prowess notwithstanding. We'll see what Scotty Boras has to say about that.
- The rotation -- do they need another arm? Lester has established himself as a stud, Beckett (when healthy), is a dominant ace, and Dice-K can be brilliant, but they need more. After watching the Rays trot out 4 quality starters, the Sox need another arm for the rotation. Is it Masterson? Bowden? Bucholz? Or a free agent (Jake Peavy, Ben Sheets, CC Sabathia, etc.)? This will be interesting, as the answer could very well determine the division leader before a game is played.
- Papi Protection - Youkilis established himself as a bona fide stud this season at the plate, but do the Sox need more than that to protect Ortiz and make him the Big Papi of '03-'07? Because clearly, the '08 Big Papi is not gonna help this team. I know his wrist was hurt and a big question mark, but the Rays (and Angels) went after him in a way I haven't seen, well, ever, and had no qualms about throwing him strikes. With names like Mark Texiera out there, don't be surprised if you start to hear rumors of the Sox interest.
- Will the kids keep coming? Ellsbury, Lowrie, Masterson, Delcarmen, Bowden, Bucholz... the list of players from the Sox system who made an impact this season is downright amazing, and that doesn't include Papelbon, Lester, Pedroia and Youkilis, all of whom are in serious consideration for postseason awards. Will the 2006-2008 class of kids continue to get better? Stop and think about this one: Every one of the names above (except Bowden) has experienced growing pains this season, from Ellsbury's slumps to Delcarmen's loss of control to Bucholz's meltdown... can they come back and be more consistent? If they do, the sky is the limit. Who would have imagined so much talent would be homegrown, especially after Lou Gorman stripped the farm system bare in the late '80s?

It should be an interesting off-season. We may be saying goodbye to Mike Timlin, Paul Byrd, Mark Kotsay, Sean Casey, and some others (Coco Crisp?), and saying hello to some interesting new ones...

Bring on the Hot Stove!

Go Sawx!

Lost weekend...

2008-10-14T11:35:00.001-07:00

If you are a Sawx or Pats fan, you know what I am about to post about...

Ugh.

All of the worst fears of these two teams were realized in a 72-hour span (give or take) and all of the flaws were exposed. The result? A collective 0-3 record for the Sawx and Pats and a dose of some serious reality.

Walk with me, people.

After watching Dice-K spin a gem (a flawed gem, yes, but still a gem) on Friday night, the Rays wasted little time in jumping all over Josh Beckett on Saturday night. When the smoke cleared after four innings, it was 5-3 Rays and Josh Beckett looked like a shadow of the playoff ace with the "guts of a burglar"... and things would only get worse, as the Sox squandered a brief 6-5 advantage and wound up losing in extra innings (sometime around 1 a.m. or so) when the Human Surrender Flag, aka Mike Timlin, gave up the winning run.

Cut to Sunday night: The Pats, coming off a solid win over the 49ers that showed off their chameleon-like quality to win with many different styles, were facing a desperate San Diego Chargers team who needed a win to have any shot at keeping pace with the Broncos in the AFC West. All signs pointed to a spirited contest that would feature two teams that genuinely dislike one another (here's one example)... except one of those teams forgot to show up.

Sorry to be harsh, but when you allow a bomb on the first play (and two more) and blow a gimme touchdown opportunity in the first 20 minutes, you ain't winning. The Pats have issues... the secondary is thin, the offensive line is struggling, and Matt Cassel looks like a guy who hasn't had meaningful snaps since his senior year in high school (oh wait... he HASN'T).

Now the Pats find themselves facing a Broncos team licking its own wounds with the perfect combination of offensive weapons to give the Pats fits: potent passing with long ball options and a running game capable of playing keep away. You think teams aren't learning how to mess with Cassel? Pay attention this week to how many times the Broncos blitz up the middle and you'll see how to beat the Pats.

And it's on to Monday... the less said, the better. Of all the pitchers on the Sox this playoffs, Jon Lester seemed like the one who would be this year's Superman. In the 2004 run, it was Schilling, bloody sock and all. In '07, Beckett. This year, after watching him own the Angels (14 IP, 0 ER, dominance and command), you had to figure that yesterday afternoon's Game 3 at Fenway was a sure Sox win. Umm... not so much.

Tony Massaroti on Boston.com nailed it -- the Sox, for whatever reason, have disregarded the scouting reports on B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria and have paid the price. Watching Upton and Longoria unload on two Lester fastballs was just unbelievable. If I had those swings, I would own the BWCS softball "B" division...

So now it's a must-win Game 4. Make no mistake: THEY HAVE TO WIN THE NEXT TWO GAMES. There's now way they can afford to lose any of the Fenway games, because they can't win two in Tampa. It's on Tim Wakefield to own the Rays (surprisingly, he has, using their aggressiveness against them) and the offense to score early and put the pressure on Tampa. If they don't, it's gonna be a long night.

It's on Wakefield, Ortiz, Varitek, Ellsbury, and the bottom of the batting order to either get out in front or wake up their bats. Otherwise, it's Rays in 6.

And then a long winter...

Go Sawx!

ALCS -- Trip to the Trop to Tackle Tampa

2008-10-09T07:04:00.000-07:00

Roll Sawx!

It's on to the ALCS after dispatching the Angels for the 3rd time in the last five seasons. Despite the whining of John Lackey that the Angels were the better team, they weren't; they played tight, made errors, couldn't get key hits when they needed them, and when the game - the series - was on the line in Game 4, called for a boneheaded suicide squeeze when a ground ball or fly ball would have plated the go-ahead run.

Look, don't get me wrong - Mike Scoscia is a great manager and they are a good team. But when you get to play 1/3 of your games against the weak AL West (Rangers, A's and Mariners) and you win 100 games, you're not as a good as you might think. Peter Gammons does a better job of articulating it here, but the result bore out what most people suspected: Regular season dominance is often a matter of perception rather than fact, as very few of the "best" teams end up winning the World Series.

So now the Sawx travel to Tampa for the best-of-7 ALCS, with all sorts of storylines brewing: David (Tampa) vs. Goliath (Boston), the kids vs. the vets, the worst-to-first Rays, the bad blood between the two teams, etc. Sufficed to say, it's a series that most people expect to be hard-fought and to go the distance.

One storyline that seems to be a little overlooked is how this season has demonstrated that, without a salary cap in baseball, it is possible to be a small-market team like Tampa and win a division. Lost in all the "Dollar Wars" between NY, Boston, LA, etc. is the tried-and-true baseball edict - if you draft good players, develop them right, mix in some savvy vets and get a little luck (not to mention a steady hand on the till in Joe Maddon), you can win and win big.

And, unlike most Sawx fans, I don't "hate" the Rays. How can you hate a team that plays hard, plays smart, and leaves it all out on the field? Sure, they brawled with Boston in June. Hard slides and high & tight fastballs will get teams ornery, and mid-season is usually around the time you see a few dust-ups. Yes, Johnny Gomes is a cheap-shot artist... frankly, the guy's a punk, but he plays hard and never quits. Much like guys 1-25 on the Sox roster. So how can you hate a team that looks and plays exactly like your team?

I, for one, am excited about this series. I think the two teams are fascinating to watch because they mirror each other in many ways - great starting pitching, great defense, speed on the bases - and yet have so many opposite traits. The Sox are a patient-hitting team that grinds starting pitchers, while Tampa is the definition of the "see ball, hit ball" team. Tampa has a bullpen that's got everything you could want - power arms, situational guys, savvy veterans - while the Sox bullpen remains a work in progress. And, lastly, the Sox can put up a lot of runs in a hurry, while Tampa can struggle for runs against good pitching teams.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see them go the full seven games, each game a 4-3 or 3-1 battle. Each team has big questions... for the Sox: Is Josh Beckett healthy? Can Dice-K go six innings? Will the Sox bullpen fall apart? For the Rays: Can they stay patient against the Sox starters, each of whom pounds the strike zone? Can they score enough runs? Who will close out the game? Will Pena, Crawford and the other walking wounded be able to make it all seven?

Fascinating... starting tomorrow night, we might get our first glimpse of the next five years of the AL East. It used to be Sox/Yankees... now it could be Sox/Rays.

Either way, bring it.

Go Sawx!

A great loss - Paul Newman, 1925-2008

2008-09-29T07:33:00.000-07:00

I was away this weekend at a Notre Dame football game, so forgive the tardiness of this post...

This blog is supposed to be for all things Boston (and sports-related), but I'd be remiss in not posting about the passing of one of the greatest American movie stars of the 20th century, and - arguably - the greatest actor of his (or any other) generation. I'm talking, of course, about the great Paul Newman, who died over the weekend at 83 years old.

I can remember my parents watching both "Butch Cassidy & the Sundance Kid" and "The Sting" with me at an early age and the way they reacted to Newman and Robert Redford in the title roles of these two films. It was the first lesson in a lifetime of understanding the true, transformative power of performance... in Newman's hands, the seemingly most stock roles (outlaw cowboy, con man, pool hustler, race car driver, etc.) became so much more layered and complex, so much more REAL, than they may have appeared.

As a kid who would grow up to be a part-time actor, it was an inspiration to watch an actor appear to shed the trappings of technique and artifice and just BE a character. As I grew older and discovered more of Newman's work - "The Hustler," "The Color of Money," "Cool Hand Luke," "Nobody's Fool," and many more - my appreciation for his work grew. I began to understand that the term "screen idol" is not one that is based on glamour or "heat," but on the performance. Today's "great actors" seem to be so focused on blowing us away with all their technique - facial tics, weight gain, etc. - and miss the very essence of acting: becoming the character. Newman understood that and never forgot it.

My most favorite performances of his were "Nobody's Fool," "Road to Perdition," and "The Color of Money." In those films, all wildly different in their story and style, you could see portraits of men who, for a variety of reasons - unfaithfulness, a criminal past, lifetime of loss - all come to realize the weight and price of their mistakes, and must reckon with the cost of those mistakes, with wildly different outcomes. The regret and sadness, never overplayed, always subtle, plays around and sometimes in the frames of Newman's portrayal, but is never the focus of the scene.

I could write more about his style, his charity work (over $200 million raised by his Newman's Own food products), his humility, and more, but to make such a fuss would miss the very basic essence of the man.

I'll simply say this: Watch his films, observe the ease in which he inhabits and becomes his characters, and marvel at how simple it all seems. Then realize what you're watching is the goal of every actor - to become the character. And realize that, with his passing, a great actor and good man has left us, leaving behind a lifetime of work that is a master class on how to become a legend.

Some clips:
"Road to Perdition" - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IK7hBG4xQhQ
"Butch Cassidy & the Sundance Kid" - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQfyOr3e-34
"The Hustler" - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cF1Jjyvec2E

Ticket punched!

2008-09-24T06:55:00.000-07:00

Playoffs!

The Sawx are into the postseason, and did so in fairly dramatic fashion, taking down the presumptive AL Cy Young Award favorite, Cliff Lee, and using the oft-maligned bullpen to wiggle out of some tough jams late in the game. They had big hits and solid starting pitching as well in taking down the Indians 5-4 and clinching a spot in the 2008 playoffs.

So now we wait to see what the Angels decide to do for the playoffs, since they have the prerogative when it comes to selecting when their series with the Sox would start. I know there is still a chance the Sox can win the AL East (they are 3 games back), but after watching Tampa sweep the Orioles in a doubleheader last night (the first EVER doubleheader sweep in Rays history), it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Rays will take the AL East Division title.

If the Angels decide to start the series on Wednesday, the Sox will need just Beckett, Lester and Dice-K for their starters, as the games go Wed/Fri/Sun/Mon/Wed. Should the Angels decide to start on Thursday, the Sox will need a 4th starter, either Wakefield or Byrd (Colon is out after pulling a Rolando Arroyo and disappearing into the Dominican for a BBQ), which means Tito Francona will have a decision to make. My money's on Byrd, given that he's been sharper of late and the knuckleball is too unpredictable in the Fall, esp. at Fenway.

Regardless, "Mission Soxtober" is accomplished, and we can look forward to postseason baseball and some late nights in our immediate future.

Go Sawx, and congrats on a hard-won playoff spot.

Tough Tampa Trek Torpedoes Title?

2008-09-18T07:14:00.000-07:00

Uh-oh...

Some numbers:
- 1 out of 3
- 1 out of 9
- 8 out of 18

And the scariest one - 2.

What do they mean? The Sox went down to Tampa this week looking to claim first place in the AL East and strike fear into the hearts of the Rays. Instead, they dropped two of the three games and leave 2 games back in the division with 10 to play.

This is the second week in a row the Sox had a chance to take over the division, only to lose 2 out of 3 to the Rays.

The Sox have now dropped 8 of the 9 games they have played this season at Tropicana Field (aka, the Trop). More on that later...

Additionally, the Sox have lost the season series to the Rays 10-8. This is the maybe the most dangerous stat.

Those last two don't bode well for the division title and the postseason.

I think we can all feel secure that, barring an HISTORIC collapse, the Sox will be playing October baseball. At the very least, they have the AL Wild Card well in hand, thanks to a 7-game lead in the Wild Card standings.

However, should the Sox finish with only the Wild Card, they will be the No. 4 seed in the playoffs and will open on the road against the Los Angeles/Anaheim/Orange County Angels. Yes, those same Angels who posted a 6-1 record against the Sox and appear to be much stronger this year than past incarnations. This year's Angels may be the deepest team they have had since that 2002 world champion team. The Angels have all the ingredients that the Sox struggle with: Big game pitcher (Lackey), deep rotation, solid bullpen, deep lineup, speed and solid defense.

As for the losing record at the Trop and in the season series, this is where it could get dicey. For whatever reason, the Sox have not been a good road team; the usual formula is win 2/3 of your home games, and go .500 on the road. The Sox, however, are under .500 on the road (dominant at home, tho), which -- as the No. 4 Wild Card seed -- could be problematic. Say the Sox make it past the Angels (on the road); their reward would be a 7-game set with the Rays in second round (since they will torpedo the AL Central winner) where the Rays would have home-field advantage. Given the 1-8 record at the Trop, that -- again -- doesn't bode well for the Sox.

Having said that, tho, there is one other troubling number: 2.
- 2 key guys are hurting, and there's no telling when (or if) they'll be good enough to help. Mike Lowell's hip is a mess, and he can barely run or field. The Sox need his bat AND glove, because Lowell at 3rd puts Youk at 1B and gives the Sox an above-average fielder at ALL the infield positions. And there's the J.D. Drew saga... say what you want about him, but his mere presence in the line-up makes the Sox so much more dangerous. He lengthens the line-up, gives Papi/Youk/Lowell/Bay protection, and plays great defense and lets Ellsbury relax and play CF. They need him, and heh as to come back.
- 2 spots in the pitching staff are up for grabs. With Beckett/Lester/Dice-K, the Sox have maybe the best 1/2/3 in the AL right now, with each guy capable of dominating. However, they need a No. 4 starter, and right now the candidates are Wakefield, Byrd and Colon... and all three have questions. Most likely, they won't have to worry about a No. 5 starter, but they will need a long guy out of the bullpen, and they have those three guys competing for those 2 spots.

- 2 games out. Like I said, the Sox winning the AL East is the best possible outcome over the next two weeks. Win the East, and they have home-field advantage for the 1st round and maybe the 2nd round if the Angels get knocked out. So logic would dictate that if the Sox win just two more games than the Rays in the next two weeks, they will win the division. Not so fast, tho; the Sox lost both key tiebreakers by dropping this series (head to head record and divisional record). So in reality, the Sox need to win THREE more games than the Rays to take the AL East title outright. Not impossible, mind you; the Sox have all 7 of their remaining 10 games at home (against the Indians & Yankees), while Tampa will have 8 of 12 on the road. It COULD happen.

I'm not scared. Why should I be? The Sox have won two world championships in the last four years, all while completely making over the entire roster. It's just that playing all those games last season to win the World Series (162 regular season plus 14 more in the post-season) may be catching up to this team through fatigue, injuries and an unexpected rival who just won't go away in the Rays.

Either way, I'm ready for the postseason.

I just wouldn't be a Sawx fan if I didn't feel a little nervous about all of the above.

Our accents... (sigh)

2008-09-15T13:12:00.000-07:00

I know this won't be a popular post, but it drives me nuts when I go somewhere like Fenway or out in Boston and I hear "F-in ree-taaahd!" from some knucklehead.

Look, I get it -- Bostonians have an accent and are provincial, and part of the fun for tourists to visit "Baw-Stahn" is to hear our accent, memorialized in "The Departed" and "Good Will Hunting" and "Gone Baby Gone." Go anywhere in America and you will find similar (simi-lah?) examples of local accents from "REAL (fill in the blank)-ians"...

But it's like nails on chalkboard everytime I hear some ciggy-butt smoking six-toothed moron talking about how they "gawt wrecked at the bah and told that kid he was reetahded."

Sure it's charming and funny. But after 10 innings of listening to the alligator-skinned, summer-teeth having, perma-tan woman behind me at the Sox game the other night... let's just say I think everyone's IQ dropped a full point listening to her.

Big Weekend!

2008-09-12T06:39:00.001-07:00

If it's mid-September, then it must be time for a pennant race here in Boston. This year, as it has been for the last 10, is no different -- give or take a few off years (I'm looking at you, 00-02), as the Sox get ready to take on the Birds of Blue from Toronto.

Or, as the inimitable Joe Castiglione calls 'em on the Sox radio play-by-play, the "Torontonians."

The Blue Jays are in town for 4 games in 3 days, and are the hottest team in baseball, winning 11 of their last 12. They are also 6.5 back in the wild card race, trailing your hometown Red Sox. Am I worried?

A little...

Not about the Blue Jays, mind you. The Sox are gonna be in the playoffs. Have no fear.

What worries me is:
A) During Wednesday night's 14-inning affair, the Sox showed a remarkable ability to NOT get a big hit. I was at the game with the lovely Mrs. Wikked Hahd and, as much as I enjoyed watching Beckett snap off his curveball and frustrate the Rays, it was a little worrisome that the Sox had about 5-6 chance to win the game and couldn't come thru.

B) Big Papi... he looks, umm, a little frustrated that he doesn't have his usual protection. Look, I love Youkilis as much as the next guy and think the guy is having an unbvelievable year, but -- gulp -- he's no Manny, and opposing pitchers know this. And Papi is feeling that loss of protection, as evidenced by the rash of pop-ups he's been hitting lately. I'm hoping it's just a little mid-September slump, but it's a little concerning to see Papi like this. After one of his at-bats, he nearly broke his bat on his thigh -- a sign of frustration I'm not sure we've seen since early May when he was hitting .190.

C) Mike Timlin. Love his competitiveness, he's a great leader and a real gamer. But he's done. Check out this blog... 'Nuff said.

D) Jacoby Ellsbury... he's fast, his defense is awesome (his catch Wednesday night was even more impressive in person) and he is a star in the making, but he HAS got to start getting on base consistently to take the pressure off the rest of the lineup. Paired with Pedroia at the top of the order, they make the Red Sox engine go, and he needs to kick in gear.

Anyway -- I'm still excited for the September pennant race and the postseason (I got my official RedSox.com postseason ticket lottery email yesterday), but would love to see some of these issues ironed out before we start spending quality time with Joe Buck and Tim McCarver on a nightly basis.

Go Sawx!

New format, new header, new... everything.

2008-09-09T12:38:00.000-07:00

So it's been a while since I've posted, well, anything. As such, it's time to shake it up.

From now on, I promise to be more diligent in posting and commenting (commentating?) on what ever is happening.

Starting today...

Tom Brady's gone. There; I said it. Deal with it.

It sucks... and now we, as fans, have a choice. Piss, moan and complain all season about "What could have been?!?!" or buckle down and start supporting the Pats. Because you can bet your ass the first thing Belichick told his players -- and the first thing the captains of this year's squad backed up -- was "He's gone. Suck it up and play your game, and we'll play our game, and we'll be in Tampa in February."

And that probably happened around 8 a.m. yesterday morning (Monday).

So what if Matt Cassell hasn't started a game since high school? So what if this makes an undefeated season a virtual impossibility? So what if Brady won't be able to become the first multi-MVP winner since Favre in the '90s. The Jets plan on showing up next Sunday at the Meadowlands, and I know Belichick and the Pats will be there as well. And I expect a hard-fought game that will come down to the 4th quarter and the final few possessions.

And I expect all of us fans to be right there for the Pats. I know I will.

A Post! A Post!

2008-04-24T11:43:00.000-07:00

Don't have time for much posting these days, but i did want to post on a few topics:

- SAWX! SAWX -- Wow... this team has been around the world, lost it's No. 1 & No. 3 starters, lost its All-Star thirdbasemen, endured a major slump by arguably its best hitter, has endured weeks of Ellsbury/Coco talk, and now has a team-wide case of the sniffles, yet sits in FIRST PLACE in the AL East. Dice-K's undefeated, the kids have been a revelation, and the bullpen has been patched together yet remains mostly effective. Paps hits 100 MPH the other night? Holy Schnikies, Incrediboy!

- Celts Quest for 17 -- C'mon Atlanta... you didn't REALLY think you had a chance, did you?!?! Bob Ryan absolutely nailed it in this morning's Globe (no surprise) about what makes this team so formidable. Instead wiping you out, they just keep coming at you with stifling D and timely buckets (not to mention some WIKKED intensity) . My favorite part has to be the following, perfectly captured by The Sports Guy's column on the NBA MVP from last week, talking about Garnett's influence on the Celts in 2007-08: "Every time an opponent kept going for a shot after a whistle, KG defiantly blocked the shot just out of principle. Eventually, everyone started doing it. No shots after the whistle against the Celtics. That was the rule. It was a series of little things, baby steps if you will, but they added up to something much bigger." Finally, I can be excited about the Celts in April again, and not because they have a lottery pick.

- Matt Walsh -- Please... give it a rest. I know many people have been saying it, but it bears repeating: If this REALLY had something, don't you think he would have come forward a long time ago, if for no other reason than he would have made millions? A lot of people have grown sick of the Pats' dominance and are looking for reasons why they are consistently better than the rest of the league (I'm talking to you, Arlen Specter), and many of them would be more than happy to pony up some dough to see Belichick and the Pats hoisted on their own petard. Best part about this has to be the statement issued on the news by the Pats... "It is important to note that there has never been a confidentiality agreement restricting Matt Walsh and no legal protections were ever necessary for him to speak to the NFL... He demanded to be released from responsibility for his statements, and after a frustrating and lengthy negotiation period, a settlement has finally been reached. Walsh has been granted a significant number of privileges... none of which the Patriots or the NFL were obligated to give." Does this sound like a team with something to hide? I don't think so either.

- Finally -- R.I.P. Don Gillis. A true Boston sportscasting legend, he originated the nightly TV sports anchor post in Boston on Channel 5 and is one of the few ever to do play-by-play for all four major sports franchises in Boston. He was also the voice of Candlepin Bowling for years in the Boston area. The Globe has a nice tribute to Gillis here. Here's a link to Gillis in a tribute to the 1967 Impossible Dream Sox: http://youtube.com/watch?v=G1qlOjIVBuY. Godspeed, Mr. Gillis... here's hoping you always pick up that 7-10 split in God's Bowling Alley.

Real? Or fake?

2008-04-11T09:37:00.000-07:00

You be the judge... pretty cool, nonetheless...